One Mann’s Movies Predictions for the BAFTAs!
Tomorrow (22nd February 2026) sees the awarding of the 2026 BAFTAs for 2026. Where will the trophies be awarded? I attempt to predict who will win and who (imho) should win!
As always, the BAFTAs tend to be a lot less predictable than the Oscars so I don’t necessarily fancy my chances, but here we go!
As a reminder, the following is the distribution of where the award nominations went, with One Battle After Another leading the field:
- One Battle After Another – 14
- Sinners – 13
- Hamnet – 11
- Marty Supreme – 11
- Frankenstein – 8
- Sentimental Value – 8
- I Swear – 5
- Bugonia – 5
- The Ballad of Wallis Island – 3
- Pillion – 3
- F1 – 3
As always, this post will be updated with the “Did Win”s through the ceremony tomorrow evening.
Best Film
- Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Marty Supreme (A24)
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
- Sentimental Value (Neon)
- Sinners (Warner Bros)
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Hamnet
Did Win: ???
Best Director
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Did Win: ???
Leading Actress
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Did Win: ???
I have still to see “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (which came out yesterday in the UK), but I have to back my Oscar choice from the moment I first saw this film back last October at the LFF.
Leading Actor
- Robert Aramayo, I Swear
- Timothee Chalomet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B Jordan, Sinners
- Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Will Win: Timothee Chalomet, Marty Supreme
Should Win: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Did Win: ???
I am really torn in my “Should Win” here between Jesse Plemons and Ethan Hawke since both top my list of best acting performance equally.
Best Supporting Actor
- Paul Mescal, Hamnet
- Peter Mullen, I Swear
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
- Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Did Win: ???
This one is a particularly difficult category to call. It could go any which way.
Supporting Actress.
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Did Win: ???
Again, a particularly difficult category to predict. I’ve plumped for Wunmi given her British upbringing that might sway it, but Lilleaas would be my personal choice.
Adapted Screenplay
- The Ballad of Wallis Island – Tom Basden & Tim Key
- Bugonia – Will Tracy
- Hamnet – Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
- One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
- Pillion – Harry Lighton
Will Win: Pillion
Should Win: The Ballad of Wallis Island
Did Win: ???
I’m sticking my neck out for a bit of a surprise in this category. Lighton’s script was novel and brilliant. I’m deliberately avoiding Chloe Zhao because of “that scene” by the River Thames!
Original Screenplay
- I Swear – Kirk Jones
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
- The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonca Filho
- Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
- Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: I Swear
Did Win: ???
Another difficult category to call. I’d be happy with any of these winning other than The Secret Agent which I thought was all over the place. I think there is a lot of respect for Sinners. But wouldn’t it be wonderful if Kirk Jones won for I Swear, making all the Americans go “Wait… what?”!
Casting:
- I Swear – Lauren Evans
- Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
- One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
- Sentimental Value – Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman
- Sinners – Francine Maisler
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Did Win: ???
Animated Film:
- Elio – Mary Alice Drumm, Adrian Molina, Madelina Sharafian, Domee Shi
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Claire LaCombe, Edwina Liard, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago, Maïlys Vallade
- Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino
Will Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Should Win: Elio
Did Win: ???
I’ve picked “Little Amélie” for this even though I haven’t seen it, since I’m not sure either of the others really deserves a top BAFTA award. (But I preferred Elio over the manic Zootopia 2.) The real answer of course is K-Pop Demon Hunters, but sadly Netflix did not allow it a ‘7-day, 10-screen’ run in cinemas before streaming it.
Production Design:
- Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
- Hamnet – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
- Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
- One Battle After Another – Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
- Sinners – Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
Did Win: ???
Hamnet was impressive, but Frankenstein would get my vote for its impressive sets.
Cinematography:
- Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
- Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Michael Bauman
- Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Will Win: Train Dreams
Should Win: Sinners
Did Win: ???
Although I didn’t fully buy into the film, I think this one deservedly goes to Train Dreams. But some of the visual imagery of Sinners is on a par for me.
Costume Design:
- Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
- Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
- Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
- Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
- Wicked For Good – Paul Tazewell
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Sinners
Did Win: ???
Editing:
- A House of Dynamite – Kirk Baxter
- F1 – Stephen Mirrione
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
- Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: F1
Should Win: F1
Did Win: ???
Makeup and Hair:
- Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel
- Hamnet – Nicole Stafford
- Marty Supreme – Kyra Panchenko, Kay Georgiou & Mike Fontaine
- Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry
- Wicked For Good – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, Mark Coulier & Sarah Nuth
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
Did Win: ???
It’s the obvious choice.
Sound:
- F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo, Gwendowlyn Yates Whittle
- Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile, Brad Zoern
- One Battle After Another – Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
- Sinners – Benny Burt, Steve Boeddeker, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Chris Welcker
- Warfare – Glenn Freemantle, Mitch Low, Ben Barker, Howard Bargraff, Richard Spooner
Will Win: F1
Should Win: Warfare
Did Win: ???
I predicted a win for Warfare when it came out, so it defaults as my “Should Win”.
Special Visual Effects:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
- F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, Keith Dawson
- Frankenstein – Dennis, Berardi, Aya Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell
- How To Train Your Dragon – Christian Mánz, Francois Lambert, Glen McIntosh, Terry Palmer
- The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Did Win: ???
Avatar’s VFX remain astonishing. But if that is overlooked, my next choice would be The Lost Bus for really making you feel like you were in the middle of an inferno.
Original Score:
- Hamnet – Max Richter
- One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
- Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
- Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
- Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Bugonia
Did Win: ???
Greenwood’s score for One Battle After Another has many supporters but I found it overly intrusive on the film. I much preferred Fendrix’s weirdly atonal and unsettling score for Bugonia.
Film Not In The English Language:
- It Was Just an Accident (France) – dir. Jafar Panahi
- The Secret Agent (Brazil) – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
- Sentimental Value (Norway) – dir. Joachim Trier
- Sirât (Spain) – dir. Oliver Laxe
- The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) – dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sirât
Did Win: ???
Annoyingly, I have still to see “The Voice of Hind Rajab”, the only one I am missing. I don’t quite understand the awards love for “The Secret Agent” which was a strange and over-long genre mismatch. I’ve suggested Sentimental Value as the will win, but my heart is with Sirât for delivering the biggest “WTF” moment in 2025.
Documentary Feature:
- 2000 Meters To Andriivka – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath
- Apocalypse in the Tropics – Petra Costa, Alessandra Orofino
- Cover-Up – Laura Poitras, Mark Obenhaus, Olivia Streisand, Yoni Golijev
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Helle Faber, Radovan Sibrt, Alzbeta Karásková
- The Perfect Neighbor – Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Did Win: ???
I can’t predict this one as I’ve not seen any of them. But for the hell of it, I’ve guessed the anti-Russian one will win!
British Short Animation
- Cardboard – J.P. Vine
- Michaela Manas
- Malina
Did Win: ???
I can’t predict this since I’ve not seen any of these.
British Short Film
- Welcome Home Freckles – Huiju Park, Nathan Hendren
- Magid / Zafar – Luis Hindman, Sufiyaan Salem, Aidan Robert Brooks
- Nostalgie – Kathryn Ferguson, Stacey Gregg, Marc Robinson, Kath Mattock
- Terence – Edem Kelman, Noah Reich
- This is Endemetriosis – Georgie Wileman, Matt Houghton, Harriette Wright
Did Win: ???
I can’t predict this since I’ve not seen any of these.
Children’s & Family Film
- Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix De Givry, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman
- Boong – Lakshmipriya Devi, Ritech Sidhwani
- Lilo & Stitch – Dean Fleischer Camp, Jonathan Eirich
- Zootropolis 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino
Will Win: Lilo & Stitch
Should Win: Lilo & Stitch
Did Win: ???
I’m only 50% on this category so will need to go with Lilo & Stitch although I think How To Train Your Dragon was better (and should have been nominated).
Outstanding British Contribution To Cinema
- Clare Binns
Clare is the Creative Director of Picturehouse Cinemas and Picturehouse Entertainment. A big day for them!
Outstanding British Film.
- 28 Years Later
- The Ballad of Wallis Island
- Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy
- Die My Love
- H is for Hawk
- Hamnet
- I Swear
- Mr Burton
- Pillion
- Steve
Will Win: Hamnet
Should Win: The Ballad of Wallis Island
Did Win: ???
Oh, what a wonderful set of films in this category! I suspect this would go to Hamnet, since I don’t see it getting Best Film, but although both are 5* films for me, my heart is really with The Ballad of Wallis Island.
Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director or Producer
- Pillion – Harry Lighton
- The Ceremony – Jack King, Hollie Bryan, Lucy Meer
- Wasteman – Cal McMau, Hunter Andrews, Eoin Doran
- A Want In Her – Myrid Carten
- My Father’s Shadow – Akinola Davies Jnr., Wale Davies
Will Win: Pillion
Should Win: Pillion
Did Win: ???
I’m short of experience in this category, but I was so impressed by Pillion.
The BAFTA Fellowship
Winner: ????.
EE Rising Star Award
The only award voted for by the British public, so an interesting popularity contest! The nominees this year are:
- Robert Aramayo – I Swear
- Miles Caton – Sinners
- Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
- Archie Madekwe – Lurker
- Posy Sterling – Lollipop
Will Win: Robert Aramayo – I Swear
Should Win: Miles Caton – Sinners
Did Win: ???
It’s always difficult to predict where the British public’s love will go in the most unpredictable award of the night. So many people loved I Swear though that I can see it going Aramayo’s way.
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