It’s Time For Me To Place My Bets!
So, its that time again. The opportunity to utterly humiliate myself in from of my loyal readers by completely cacking up my 2026 Oscar predictions! My success at these predictions has been variable to say the list, with this being my 11th year of predicting the results. Past form has been:
- 52% last year
- 83% in 2024
- 56% in 2023
- 84% in 2022
- 73% in 2021
- 68% in 2020
- 39% in 2019
- 84% in 2018
- 61% in 2017
- 67% in 2016
So please bear that in mind if – like me – you choose to put a flutter on my Oscar predictions! As they say in the financial adverts, “your investments may go down as well as up”!
I also just shared a podcast of my discussions on where these awards will go with my friend and colleague Scott Forbes, and that is available on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/8eywiRdbRXo. I have actually made one last-minute adjustment to my predictions from that podcast… in the category of Best Documentary.
So, here’s where I see the awards going with my “Will Wins” and “Should Wins”. This post will be updated through Oscar night with the “Did Wins” and I will see if I lost my shirt or not! As I want to offer a ‘running commentary’ on the night, the awards have been listed in the expected order of announcement (based on last year’s Oscars, with the new category – “Casting” – being slotted in in the middle).
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo, Sinners
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Did Win: ??
Sean Penn has all the momentum and I’m much warmer to him winning this after watching One Battle for a second time. But I still prefer Stellan Skarsgård’s more understated performance. Scott thinks that Delroy Lindo may ride a wave of last-minute support to steal it… so this should be an interesting category to kick off the night!
Animated Feature:
- Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophia Mas, Natalie Portman
- Elio – Mary Alice Drumm, Adrian Molina, Madelina Sharafian, Domee Shi
- KPop Demon Hunters – Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang, Michelle L.M. Wong
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Claire LaCombe, Edwina Liard, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago, Maïlys Vallade
- Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters – Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang, Michelle L.M. Wong
Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters – Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang, Michelle L.M. Wong
Did Win: ??
A category that I am two films short on, thanks to having missed “Little Amélie” when it came out due to holidays and “Arco” unhelpfully coming out two days after the Oscars. But I have seen KPop Demon Hunters (but have yet to write a review) and in what I think is a fairly lacklustre year for animation, this is the juggernaut that every child will be rooting for! So, in my book, it’s chances must be ‘Golden’!
Animated Short:
- Butterfly, Florence Miailhe, Ron Dyens
- ForeverGreen, Nathan Engelhardt, Jeremy Spears
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis, Maciek Szczerbowski
- Retirement Plan – John Kelly, Andrew Freedman
- The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit
My combined review of all of the animated shorts is here.
Will Win: Butterfly, Florence Miailhe, Ron Dyens
Should Win: Butterfly, Florence Miailhe, Ron Dyens
Did Win: ??
I’ve seen all but the Russian film “The Three Sisters”, but “Butterfly” stands out for me as the cream of the crop.
Costume Design:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
- Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
- Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
- Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
- Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Will Win: Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Should Win: Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Did Win: ??
As always, with my fashion sense, making a pick in this category is a bit of a joke! But I think this one should go to Sinners. This seems to be against the run of the money, with Scott predicting Frankenstein to win. (Frankly, I had forgotten about the wonderful fashions that the likes of Mia Goth was wearing on the mansion steps, so he may be right on this one!)
Original Screenplay
- Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
- Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Will Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Should Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Did Win: ??
I think this is one that Sinners will pick up, although I do have a lot of love for the script for Blue Moon.
Adapted Screenplay
- Bugonia – Will Tracy
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro
- Hamnet – Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
- One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
- Train Dreams – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Did Win: ??
I can’t really see this going in any other direction than PTA’s for this category.
Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel
- Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hirino, Tadashi Nishimatsu
- Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry
- The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein
- The Ugly Stepsister – Anne Catherine Sauerberg, Thomas Foldberg
Will Win: Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel
Should Win: Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel
Did Win: ??
I’m two short in this category, but my money is going onto Frankenstein.
Film Editing:
- F1 – Stephen Mirrione
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
- Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
- Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Did Win: ??
I reckon this would be a close race between F1, One Battle After Another and Sinners, but I will plump for the BAFTA winner One Battle After Another.
Supporting Actress.
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Will Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Did Win: ??
Oh my… this is the main category that is just so wide open. All of Madigan, Taylor and Mosaku have picked up awards over the last several weeks and this could go to any of them. As the Actor Award went to Madigan, common sense should make me go for her incredible performance in Weapons, but with a wave of support for One Battle After Another and a “OscarsSoWhite” angle (one white woman vs two black women) I’ve taken a risk and suggested that Teyana Taylor will get it instead.
Production Design:
- Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
- Hamnet – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
- Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
- One Battle After Another – Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
- Sinners – Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
Will Win: Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
Should Win: Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
Did Win: ??
I’ve plumped for the BAFTA winner for this one as the sets were stupendous.
Original Song:
- Diane Warren: Relentless – “Dear Me” by Diane Warren
- KPop Demon Hunters – “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
- Sinners – “I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
- Viva Verdi – “Sweet Dreams of Joy”, Nicolas Pike
- Train Dreams – “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave, Bryce Dessler
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters – “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters – “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
Did Win: ??
I think there is only one winner for this award this year.
Casting:
- Hamnet – Nina Gold
- Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
- One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
- The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
- Sinners – Francine Maisler
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
Did Win: ??
The first new Oscar category in over 20 years! I think this should be a straight fight between Sinners and One Battle After Another, but I think One Battle will win out. But this one might be close. Marty Supreme might be an outside bet as well.
Documentary Short:
- All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel, Trevor Burgess
- Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Brent Renaud, Craig Renaud
- Children No More: “Were And Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia, Sheila Nevins
- The Devil is Busy – Geeta Gandbhir, Christalyn Hampton
- Perfectly A Strangeness – Alison McAlpine
Will Win: ??
Should Win: ??
Did Win: ??
I am still trying to watch as many of these films as I can this week, so will reserve judgement until right before the ceremony.
Documentary Feature:
- The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jackson, Charlotte Kaufman
- Come See Me In The Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Stef Willen
- Cutting Through Rocks – Mohammadreza Eyni, Sara Khaki
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Helle Faber, Radovan Sibrt, Alzbeta Karásková
- The Perfect Neighbor – Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Did Win: ??
I’m two short in this category, but for me the best of the one’s I’ve seen is Mr. Nobody Against Putin. But whether this British made / Russian based movie will chime with Academy members over the more home-grown content of The Perfect Neighbor and Come See Me In The Good Light is debatable.
Sound:
- F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo, Gwendowlyn Yates Whittle
- Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile, Brad Zoern
- One Battle After Another – Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
- Sinners – Benny Burt, Steve Boeddeker, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Chris Welcker
- Sirât – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
Did Win: ??
Even though I’d love to see Sirât win something (that rave music!) I think Sound is most likely between F1 and One Battle After Another. I’ve tipped One Battle; Scott has tipped F1.
Visual Effects:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
- F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, Keith Dawson
- Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould
- The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin
- Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
Did Win: ??
Anything other than Jurassic World Rebirth please! I know it’s the obvious choice, but Avatar is still a miracle of cinema effects, even after three films.
Live Action Short:
- Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Beount, Oron Caspi
- A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight, James Dean
- Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks, Steve Pinder
- The Singers – Franz Böhm, Hayder Rothschild Hoozeer
- Two People Exchanging Saliva – Natalie Musteata, Alexandre Singh
(My reviews of all of the Live Action Shorts are here.)
Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva – Natalie Musteata, Alexandre Singh
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva – Natalie Musteata, Alexandre Singh
Did Win: ??
A really strong line-up of short films this year, but the French film just pips it for me. Pure class.
Cinematography:
- Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
- Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
- One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
- Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Will Win: Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Should Win: Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Did Win: ??
This is another likely battle between One Battle After Another and Sinners, although the dark horse in this category might be Train Dreams. I think this one could and should go to Sinners.
International Feature:
- The Secret Agent (Brazil) – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
- It Was Just an Accident (France) – dir. Jafar Panahi
- Sentimental Value (Norway) – dir. Joachim Trier
- Sirât (Spain) – dir. Oliver Laxe
- The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) – dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
Will Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil) – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
Should Win: Sirât (Spain) – dir. Oliver Laxe
Did Win: ??
Although I have a lot of love for Sirât, I think this will be between Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. I think the money will be with Sentimental Value, but I have a sneaky feeling that with a strong Brazilian lobby, and probably against my better judgement, that The Secret Agent might take the Oscar. (I’m preparing to lose another fiver on this category!)
Original Score:
- Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
- Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
- Hamnet – Max Richter
- One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
- Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Will Win: Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Should Win: Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Did Win: ??
The tide seems to be with Ludwig Göransson on this one. Although I have a greater respect for Jonny Greenwood’s score after seeing the film again (although I do still find parts of it overly intrusive).
Best Actor
- Timothee Chalomet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B Jordan, Sinners
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Will Win: Michael B Jordan, Sinners
Should Win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Did Win: ??
A race that looked like it was wrapped up for Chalamet is now wide open again thanks to Michael B Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards and Chalamet recently generating less than positive PR with some of his comments. I really think it might go Jordan’s way. In the shameless absence of Jesse Plemons on this list for Bugonia, my next favourite performance of the year was Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon.
Best Director
- Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Did Win: ??
I’d actually like Coogler to pick up the director award for taking such a wonderful Indie swing with this one. But I’d be amazed if PTA doesn’t get it. If I did go Coogler’s way that might signify a big upset for the top prize!
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Did Win: ??
Unlike the men, this one still looks sewn on for Buckley, but having just watched Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, I could see that in any other year, this would be hers.
Best Picture
- Bugonia (Focus Features)
- F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
- Frankenstein (Netflix)
- Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Marty Supreme (A24)
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
- The Secret Agent (Neon)
- Sentimental Value (Neon)
- Sinners (Warner Bros)
- Train Dreams (Netflix)
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Hamnet
Did Win: ??
Having watched One Battle… for a second time at the cinema I have to admire the film and think it should have been more prominent in my 2025 Top 20 (as indeed should Sinners). But the one I would prefer to win is Hamnet, and I would also have no problem at all if Sinners crept through the door… but I think that would still be a surprise.
So… those are my Oscar predictions for 2026. Watch out for a new post on Sunday night / Monday morning for the results and how I got on!
Subscribe
Don’t forget, you can subscribe to One Mann’s Movies to receive future reviews by email right here. No salesman will call!
